top risks 2020


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Roddy Dunlop said the rate of Covid transmission in the capital is "so low" that it should be placed into Level 2 and the government's refusal put firms at risk of "financial ruin", STV reports. The activist society passes judgement. Sustaining customer loyalty and retention may be becoming increasingly difficult (10). This is the case for countries that have enacted budget-busting bailout programmes. There is some comfort to be taken in this landscape of uncertainty. Over 70 percent of respondents rated this concern as a significant risk issue for 2020. We’ve lived with growing levels of geopolitical risk for nearly a decade, but without a true international crisis. Video It continues to represent a major source of uncertainty among the majority of organizations, given that 70 percent of respondents rated it as a significant risk issue. Supply chain attacks are on the rise. 2019 and the early days of 2020 revealed a world … Rigged! This is no longer tenable. Jim DeLoach has over 35 years of experience and is a member of Protiviti’s Solutions Leadership Team. His opponent – former vice president Joe Biden – is gaining simply by standing still. The growing presence of app-based platforms, digital marketing and other online ordering and delivery services is shocking many businesses used to the traditional forms of customer interactions. If so, that problem can be solved through education and constant communication. Top risks and megatrends 2020 Airmic annual survey report. Risks require prevention and protection to be considered through a global, interdisciplinary and multi-stakeholder approach. This fragmentation, and the complexity it creates, will persist through the end of 2020 and most likely far beyond. Across the world, social pressures and coordinated activism … Download eBook: Top 10 Risk & Compliance Trends for 2020. 2. The “new normal” has become a cliché for the world we are feeling our way towards. Economic and social factors are beginning to outweigh public health; for millions across the world, the choice is increasingly between unsustainable hardship and risking infection by continuing to work. Which companies laid off workers, and how many? Save this article. In addition, volatility in equity markets, changes in the U.S. federal funds rate, actions by other central banks, multiple tariff and trade policy disputes and negotiations and the continued uncertainty surrounding the United Kingdom’s break from the European Union have executives on the edge of their seats, wondering if an economic downturn is on the near-term horizon. It won’t stop there. Respondents remain noticeably concerned about the ability of their organizations — relative to competitors — to adjust their existing operations, IT infrastructure and digital capabilities to meet performance expectations. To download, select the icon from the top right-hand corner of this page. Businesses across Africa are also increasingly concerned about business interruption as it has become the continent’s top risk in 2020 from 5th in 2019,” he said. It is a risk that executives may want to focus their attention on, as it signals a noticeable concern that employees across the organization may be aware of risks, but for whatever reason, are reluctant to escalate them to executive management or the board. If there’s one emerging risk that will dominate 2020, it will be the development of natural disasters and the consequential damage they impose on livelihoods across the globe. The risk of succession challenges and the ability to attract and retain talent remains among the top five risks for 2020, in light of continued record-low unemployment in many regions of the world. Baker McKenzie partnered with Risk.net in its annual ranking of the top operational risks for 2020. Print this page . The way we work – whether we remain at home, have returned to offices and factories or have been there all along– feels dramatically different. 8. State-sponsored operations are hyperactively targeting the scientific and medical communities researching for a COVID-19 treatment or vaccine. Governments and companies will now be held to account for their actions and performance as leaders and as corporate citizens when the world was on its knees. Governments will be held to account for their death rates and infection counts. As the future world of work evolves, organizations need to optimize their mix of internal, contracted and interim human talent and electronic workers (machines and algorithms). Facebook . For others, the clocks went into overdrive. Strategic error in the digital economy can result in a company paying the ultimate price if it continues to play a losing hand in the marketplace. Most of the few attempts at cooperation – sending ventilators or other supplies to countries in need – came undone amid claims of mismanagement, fraud or political ill will. This is the case for countries with shaky political coalitions. Even when executives are aware of emerging technologies that obviously have disruptive potential, it is often difficult to clarify the implications of the vision or foresight that anticipates the nature and extent of change — particularly if the organization does not think or act digitally at its core. Broadly speaking, we do not believe the pandemic has created substantial new categories of risk. The top five risks that your organisation currently faces vs the top five risk areas on which internal audit currently spends most time and effort: 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Cybersecurity and data security Regulatory change and compliance Digitalisation, disruptive technology and … The Protiviti report includes an in-depth analysis of the risk concerns recorded in the survey. 2019 and the early days of 2020 revealed a world convulsed by activism, fuelled by a now-familiar list of drivers: income inequality, climate change, gender equality, the rights of racial and ethnic minorities or indigenous people, and refugees and migration, among others. Now that there is more time – and space – for criticism, we are seeing a much sharper picture of government instability with roots in politics, economics or both. Global business environment slightly less risky in 2020. Now, the greatest risk resides in the short term, which remains full of unknowns. Interesting shifts in the 2020 top 10 risks. Conducted online in the fall of 2019, the survey asked each respondent to rate 30 individual risk issues using a 10-point scale, where a score of 1 reflects “No Impact at All” and a score of 10 reflects “Extensive Impact” to their organization over the next year. Activist societies already cite the COVID-19 crisis as an impetus for transformative environmental, social and economic policies. Over the eight years we have conducted this survey, this risk has been in the #1 or #2 spot each year — except for the last two years, when it was slightly lower, but still in the list of top five risks. The distant, unknowable future usually holds the greatest risk; our comfort zone is the short term, where nothing hides out of sight. Most executives concerned about economic conditions. That’s why, for the seventh consecutive year, AXA has conducted its annual survey of emerging risks. Risk outlook: the world in 2020. Airmic’s survey report for 2020 highlights the risks and megatrends impacting organisations and provides the context in which risk professionals are operating. The US election is likely to be a waypoint, not an inflection point, in the trend towards strategic competition. Whether covert or overt, resistance to changes necessary to deal with disruptive innovations or regulatory constraints that alter business fundamentals can be catastrophic. With a few exceptions, autocracies and democracies have fumbled at least some aspects of their pandemic responses – they both confused and exasperated their populations and their business communities. The US has held successful presidential elections at times of national crisis before – think 1864 or 1968 – but not in the crucible of a deadly global pandemic. 9. We also pose key questions as a call to action for board members and executive management to consider — questions that can serve as a diagnostic to evaluate and improve their organization’s risk assessment and management processes. The way we live – with our kitchens transformed into classrooms and offices – is filled with new rhythms and habits. As major business model disruptors emerge — whether from technology advancements, competitor actions, regulations or other sources — respondents are growing even more focused on their organizations’ potential unwillingness or inability to make necessary timely adjustments to the business model and core operations that might be needed to respond to change. If the company’s risk assessment processes have not identified these issues as priority risks, executives and directors should ask why not — and consider the relevance of these issues to their business. Overall, 1,063 C-level executives and directors participated in this year’s global study, with 39 percent representing companies based in North America, 22 percent in Europe, 18 percent in Asia and Australia/New Zealand and the remaining 21 percent from Latin America, the Middle East, India and Africa. The election itself will be fraught and unprecedented. This vital specialized knowledge and subject-matter expertise are in high demand and becoming harder to acquire and retain on a cost-effective basis. One risk that dropped out of the top 10 this year is the concern that the rapid speed of disruptive innovations and/or new technologies within the industry may outpace the organization’s ability to compete and/or manage the risk appropriately without making significant changes to the business model. Our participants focused on a wide range of issues, from business disruption and malicious attacks to data protection and innovation. Economic conditions restricting growth prospects in relevant markets (11). Companies with global footprints will themselves have to become leaders in navigating a minefield of conflicting political priorities, regulatory regimes and pandemic de-escalation. This is the case for countries heavily dependent on oil exports. Perhaps there was no other way. (39% of responses) Cyber risk tops the Allianz Risk Barometer for the first time with … The pandemic has stood that principle on its head. 10. AI-enabled technologies will greatly influence — often by enabling and sometimes by making more complex — how companies design and manage their labor models. They also have more time on their hands. Respondents recognize that reality, with two-thirds of our respondents rating this risk as a significant impact risk concern for 2020. 3. Watch all of them, with an eye toward their political longevity. Most people think that the physical and virtual worlds are separate, but in reality the virtual world is very much affected by the natural disasters of the physical world. Concerns over operational capabilities have strategic underpinnings. Following are the top 10 risks identified in the “Executive Perspectives on Top Risks for 2020” report: 1. Systemic racial discrimination in the US – which draws as well from income inequality and is accelerated by the pandemic’s disproportionate blow to racial and ethnic minorities– promises to make the coming year pitched with protest. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects global growth to stand at only 2.9% in 2020, close to decade lows. However, the nature of the top 10 risks this year — which include risks associated with the ability to adjust operations, IT infrastructure and digital capabilities to fend off threats from “born digital” players, resistance to change, talent acquisition and retention challenges, uncertainty over cyber and privacy issues, customer loyalty concerns, regulatory disruption and the effect of AI-enabled technologies on the future of work — indicates that this drop likely occurred because respondents in prior surveys were concerned about the potential for disruptive change, whereas now they are concerned about the disruption that is already upon them. The drivers of activism are being supercharged. We certainly did not forecast the COVID-19 pandemic. Top five risks to the global economy in 2020. Culture may not encourage timely escalation of risk issues (9). Prior to the pandemic, a number of countries presented a volatile mix of political instability and economic vulnerability. Leaders of organizations of virtually every size, industry and geographic location are reminded all too frequently that they operate in an increasingly risky world. World leaders, each in their own patch, will continue to act unilaterally. While the overall global economy remains relatively strong, there has been growing speculation – particularly in the United States – that the long streak of economic growth may stall in the near term. 10. Working at Height. Top 10 op risks 2020: conduct risk Root-and-branch reform of bank culture remains a work in progress. Geopolitical & macroeconomic leads the emerging risks Date last reviewed: October 2020 This is a resource for quality assurance and risk management purposes only, and is not intended to provide or replace legal or medical advice or reflect standards of … That risk concern raced from the number 10 position in 2018 to the number one position for 2019. The disruption to our very sense of time is profound but little discussed – so much else is more urgent. The same is true for Control Risks Top 5 Risks for 2020, as initially released in December 2019. Regulatory changes and scrutiny may heighten, noticeably affecting the manner in which our products or services will be produced or delivered 2. The proliferation of data gathered and stored for long periods by all types of organizations across international borders is exponentially increasing operational challenges related to the tracking, warehousing and protecting of that data. It’s a phrase loaded – falsely, perhaps – with suggestions of a return to something familiar or at least predictable. These are where cyberattackers inject code into a website — … Helping organisations succeed in a volatile world, © Control Risks Group Holdings Ltd registration no.01548306, 5. ... For the first time in the history of the survey’s 10-year outlook, environmental threats dominate the top five long term risks by likelihood and occupy three of the top five spots by impact. The advance of the virus has bolstered populist critics of globalisation and entrenched the polarisation and mistrust of government. The COVID-19 trauma has only deepened the determination in both Washington DC and Beijing to dig in for a long-term US-China struggle, including through pursuit of industrial “self-reliance” and increased global influence. The overarching concern relates to how different types of regulatory requirements and oversight may lead to disruptions in business models and constrict companies’ ability to innovate in certain areas. Succession challenges and talent acquisition and retention (2) The risk of succession challenges … Cyber incidents have been ranked as the top business risk in the Allianz Global Risk Barometer 2020, knocking business interruption from a top spot it had held for seven consecutive years. The pandemic, however, seems to be the moment the world wasn’t waiting for, and apparently wasn’t prepared for, either. In particular, COVID-19 accentuated national security concerns around biotechnology, pharmaceuticals and medical devices. top risks expected to increase in 2020 respondents to global risks perception survey (%) economic confrontation/frictions between major powers 78.5% domestic political polarisation 78.4% extreme heat waves 77.1% destruction of natural ecosystems 76.2% cyber attacks: disruption of operations and infrastructure 76.1% protectionism regarding trade and investment For some, the pandemic brought time to a standstill. During the early phases of the pandemic, it was difficult to identify the trouble spots. Simply stated, technology is expected to support and shape the components of the workforce by offering additional capabilities that, if applied intelligently, will increase quality, compress elapsed time, reduce costs and enhance scalability. Existing operations, infrastructure and digital capabilities unable to adjust to “born digital” competitors or those with superior performance (1). Successes were fewer still. Read the risk. Digital effectiveness remains in the top three risks and opportunities … Tensions between the US and Iran, coupled with the emergence of a novel coronavirus in China, will limit any pick-up in business confidence and investment. How is your internet connection holding up? Here are ten of the top geopolitical risks to watch out for in 2020: 2020 elections : Either a Trump reelection or a victory for a Democratic challenger is bound to deepen US political tribalism. But the public will also want to know what companies did during the crisis. Theft and fraud jumps to third in this year’s survey – a sign of both its ubiquity for … This is not hubris or “We told you so”. Succession challenges and talent acquisition and retention (2). We highlight how the top five global risks are playing out at a regional level. Even as the “sudden stop” of economic activity hit with breath-taking speed, the pandemic’s earliest political impact was to create a “rally around the flag” effect that initially bolstered many governments in crisis. The bitter COVID-19 blame game has been a catalyst for strategic rivalry that had threatened to boil over prior to the pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic is disrupting almost every measurable human activity. Accidental missteps in how organizations handle these operations may inadvertently reveal information deemed to be private or proprietary. A Trump victory would set the United States up for four more years of withdrawal from the multilateral world order, while a narrow Trump loss could cause domestic political turmoil. China. Injuries and fatalities … It focuses on a range of issues, including digitalization, business resilience, organizational change, and geopolitical risks. This framework might include, on the human side, outsourcing and offshoring, consulting partnerships, interim staffing, business process as a service (BPaaS) relationships, managed services and a variety of “human cloud” arrangements. Brazil stands out as a country whose handling of COVID-19 threatens political stability. Executives continue to be concerned about their ability to enact change, despite the reality that change has become a way of life for most companies. Economic distress and healthcare inequality will underpin new political challenges. As with our prior surveys, our results offer snapshots by industry, executive position, company size and type and geographic area. Younger generations who have grown up in a technology-centric world view digital technologies as native, transforming the traditional ways organizations deliver products and services. This is a concern for most respondents, with some exceptions noted below. That reluctance may be triggered by a lack of knowledge among employees about the process for escalating risk concerns and when to use it. Conduct risk returns to this year’s Top 10 Op Risks, although it’s never really been away. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has entered a period of steep political decline. And for just about everyone, the question of what happened yesterday, last week or last month has become a distorted guessing game. The report is based on a survey of operational risk practitioners across the globe and in-depth interview with respondents. While no one knows that for sure, economic growth has, in fact, declined in the U.S., China and other countries. [2] “The Implications of Technical Debt to Your Company’s Competitiveness,” by Jim DeLoach, Corporate Compliance Insights, January 23, 2020, available at www.corporatecomplianceinsights.com/implications-technical-debt/. Send to . : Who Governs the US? Jim has been appointed to the NACD Directorship 100 list from 2012 to 2017. www.corporatecomplianceinsights.com/implications-technical-debt/, Remote Compliance: Managing InfoSec Audits from a Distance, Risk Management and AI: A Regulatory Path Forward, Implications of India’s New Labor Law Codes, 5 Steps to Implement a Sanctions Compliance Program, Proactive Monitoring: A Sound Approach to Compliance. We thought many of those countries would come under extreme pressure in 2020. The time has come to update our Top Risks 2020, taking into account how the coronavirus has accelerated the trends that worry us most. Activists are taking to the digital streets in large numbers as physical restrictions and violent repression make cyber activism an increasingly effective tool for projecting opinions. Renewed economic activity will not lift all the ships of state equally. Typically, they travel in the same direction. The top 10 most dangerous risks for 2020 chosen by the 101 insurance executives who answered our poll are: 01 Cybersecurity and cybercrime (up from two in 2019) Insurers have more to worry about regarding cybercrime than other businesses. Just as the world entered the crisis with a crunching of gears and multiple wrong turns, it is reversing out of it in the same manner. While dropping slightly to the number four position for 2020, it is nonetheless a significant risk concern for 67 percent of our respondents. As large protests worldwide in solidarity show, addressing racial, ethnic, LGBTQI, sectarian and other forms of discrimination is not just a US – or indeed a purely governmental – problem. With an eye on the crises in Wuhan, Tehran and Lombardy, governments could trumpet stringent measures as blunting the pandemic wave and saving countless lives. There are two categories of organizations: those that have been breached and know it and those that have been breached but don’t know it yet. This remains the case, and the list is growing. For each of the 30 risk issues, we computed the average score reported by all respondents. The unprecedented alignment of capability and intent set 2020 up to be the year when we would see a large-scale attack on critical infrastructure. In addition to the countless lives lost or damaged, the fabric of business and society is being rewoven into a new pattern. Interestingly, economic concerns are in the top-five list of risks for all regions of the world, except in North America. But it also includes a technological side, such as robotic process automation and AI-enabled technologies that both displace existing skills and demand new skills. Cybersecurity: the stakes have never been higher, Watch the RiskMap 2020 Special Edition Webinar. Each of the issues, and many more identified in our trends report, represent a potential area of risk. Talent and culture risks and technology and innovation risks dominate the top 10. 2020 is a tipping point. Airmic 1st July 2020. TURKEY. This reality is one that no management team or board can ignore. This risk issue was added to our 2015 risk survey, and it has been ranked in the top 10 risks each year since that time. What’s at stake is sustaining a workforce with the requisite talent and skills needed to think creatively in a rapidly changing digital marketplace, execute high-performance business models and implement increasingly demanding growth strategies. If organizations cannot adjust their operations, legacy IT infrastructure and digital capabilities (as discussed above), they may not meet the expectations of their core customers in a manner sufficient to retain their loyalty. Respondents continue to perceive that significant operational challenges may arise if organizations are unable to build and sustain a workforce with the skills needed to implement their growth strategies, forcing them to consider alternative forms of labor. Our organization’s … Not surprisingly, information security and cyber remained the top risk for 2020. In fact, the only change to our Top 5 Risks for 2020 is the order in which we rank them, with the political and economic impacts of the pandemic pushing the risks previously ranked in fourth and fifth place to the fore. With a focus on helping organizations respond to government mandates, shareholder demands and a changing business environment in a cost-effective and sustainable manner, Jim assists companies in integrating risk and risk management with strategy setting and performance management. This concern may be a composite of several significant uncertainties — the company’s digital readiness, its lack of resiliency and agility needed to stay ahead of or keep pace with changing market realities, the restrictive burden of significant technical debt,[2] the lack of out-of-the-box thinking about the business model and fundamental assumptions underlying the business strategy and the existence or threat of more nimble or “born digital” competitors. For example, shifts in regulations related to privacy, product development and approval, trade and tariff policies, the environment, social issues and broader governance expectations have been happening and continue to happen around the world, impacting any organization that wishes to do business both within and outside its home-country borders. Whatever the reason, the number of instances in which an organization’s leaders are unaware of internally caused, reputation-damaging risks and surprises until the point of revelation is troubling. Construction frequently requires workers to work at height. This summary provides a context for understanding the most critical uncertainties companies face in 2020. For example, the blending of this risk with the fourth-ranked risk above — the inability to adjust existing operations, IT infrastructure and digital capabilities to compete with more nimble competitors — creates a potentially lethal combination. Protiviti’s Jim DeLoach provides an update from the ERM Initiative of the various risks organizations face relative to two years ago. Regulatory change and heightened regulatory scrutiny impacting operational resilience and production and delivery of products and services (4). To thrive in the digital age, organizations need to think and act digitally and have the capabilities to execute digital plans. Years of simmering populism, nationalism and protectionism were never going to build the sort of trust and transparency countries need to work effectively with each other in a time of crisis. In 2018 to the pandemic brought time to a standstill new normal ” has become a cliché for the we! Each in their own patch, will persist through the end of 2020 and,! Has become a cliché for the first time with … Rigged cyber risk tops the risk! The COVID-19 crisis as an impetus for transformative environmental, social and economic vulnerability these.! 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